Value bets strategy. Sports betting strategy – Value betting

The Value betting system is a mathematical strategy for betting on events, the odds of which are unreasonably inflated by bookmaker analysts. For example, if a team wins on average one match out of three on the away court, the odds for victory of 3.30 can be considered somewhat inflated: if you bet 300 rubles in three games, you can get 330 at the exit. It is worth considering that the above example is purely theoretical and does not take into account the team’s position in the standings, the level of opponents and other factors.

What is the “Value betting” strategy

Value betting is betting with an advantage. Playing on such bets can give the player a significant advantage over the bookmaker. The point of the strategy is to play only on bets where the bookmaker makes a mistake in assessing the probability.

There are quite a few such events: the odds can change not only due to an incorrect assessment, but also due to the fact that few bets have been made on a given outcome, team statistics have changed, and so on. In theory, value bets over the long term can give the bettor a stable profit.

The value bet can be described by the following formula:

K – coefficient offered by the bookmaker

B is the probability of the event calculated by the player.

Determination of Value bets

Initially, we only know the bookmaker’s odds. All that is required of us is to determine the probability of the event. For this purpose, bookmakers use their own staff of analysts who take into account all statistical and other indicators. Once placed on the site, the rate may change due to a number of factors. First of all, under the influence of public opinion. The more a person bets on a certain result, the lower his odds will be.

There are two ways to determine the probability of a sports outcome:

Study of statistics. Mathematics, numbers, calculations. The probability determination takes into account the history of confrontations between two teams and athletes, the history of recent games, the usefulness of absent and replacement players, etc.
Expert review. It is largely based on statistics, but also takes into account other factors - the emotional and physical form of the players, psychological readiness for the game, weather conditions, motivation, etc.

Expert analytics is suitable for players who have a thorough understanding of a particular sport. If you have studied a league, watch and analyze major matches, are a sports journalist, professional athlete or manager, this method is for you.

The statistical method is somewhat simpler and is suitable for players who know the sport only at an amateur level. One of the ways to determine value bets is a comparative analysis of bookmaker odds from different bookmakers for a specific match. Taking into account the margin, you can calculate how each individual bookmaker determines the probability. From the set of probabilities, we derive the average indicator and compare the quotes of each individual office with it.

Looking for good value rates

The weak point of many bookmakers is that they calculate odds based primarily on the position of teams in the standings. However, it is not uncommon for an outsider team to beat the favorite of the race - as an example, the recent victory of HC Sochi over SKA in the Kontinental Hockey League. To find a good bet, you can watch how the teams behave on the field and evaluate their form. If a team performs at a high enough level, it can turn the tide in its favor and move up the standings. It is important not to miss this moment: the odds will be high only as long as the team lags behind the others.

Another way is to analyze the odds at an early stage, when the bookmaker’s line is just being formed. This method is especially effective in little-known and minor leagues, where the player has the opportunity to obtain certain information before the bookmaker. For example, if a match is planned between two teams of equal strength, the odds for their victory may fluctuate around 2.50. If one of the teams decides to play as a second team and concentrate on a more significant match, the odds will begin to fall. If the player manages to place a bet before the odds drop, he will make a handsome profit. The better’s task is to find out about the changes before the bookmaker and place a bet at an inflated odds. This is one of the reasons to closely follow all sports news.

Value Betting is a very interesting strategy that is mathematically winning in long-term play. It is in tennis that it is most applicable, since it is an individual sport and there are only two possible results. The essence of the strategy comes down to the fact that you need to accurately assess the chances of the players in the match and look for where the bookmaker in the line assessed the chances incorrectly in order to place a bet on this particular event. In this way, a positive mathematical expectation is formed, which sooner or later will bring the player to profit.

What is this strategy based on?

If you imagine how a bookmaker works, then you know that the odds are often related not so much to the real balance of power of tennis players, but to who the players will bet on in the bookmaker. For this reason, we can say with confidence that not all events in the line are estimated correctly and among them there are a sufficient number of inflated odds.

Here it can be noted that the bookmaker more often overestimates the odds for an outsider, which is why mathematically advantageous bets are more likely to be found here. There are few bets on outsiders, which is why bookmaker analysts often “raise the odds,” thus balancing financial flows and guaranteeing the bookmaker’s profit. Naturally, such bets lose more often, but in the end the player who knows how to find these small errors remains in the black.

Let's give a simple example: I am playing with two tennis players, world star A and a representative of the “second tier” B. Naturally, the chances of tennis player A winning are much higher, let them be 70%, which corresponds to a coefficient of 1.43. The chances of player B are 30% and the odds are 3.33, respectively. This is a “fair” coefficient, without “margin”.

But the bookmaker understands that in this match few people will bet on player B simply because he is playing with a “star”. According to his estimates, approximately 80% of players will bet on the victory of tennis player A, add 5% margin and get a coefficient of 1.17. Pretty standard for a clear favorite, right?

But with this logic, player B’s chances should be 20%, to which a 5% margin is added, in the end he sets odds of 4. This is noticeably more than the “fair” 3.33 or (if we take into account the margin) 2.85, which we should would be seen in line. Accordingly, a bet on this event has a positive mathematical expectation, which is easy to check: if we bet 1 conventional unit with a coefficient of 4 and a probability of 0.3, then mathematically each bet will return to us: 1*4*0.3 = 1.2 units, i.e. 20% of profit.

The main tasks and difficulties when playing this strategy

The main difficulty of this strategy is that you need to learn to accurately assess the probability of events and not “follow” the opinions of the crowd and bookmaker odds (which, as we said, do not always reflect the real picture). Naturally, this is quite difficult, because there are a lot of “unknowns” here.

But thanks to access to all available statistics, availability of news and information on the Internet, as well as the ability to watch the broadcast of almost any match, ordinary players, if desired, can easily be compared in awareness to a bookmaker analyst. Another issue is the experience that comes with time.

But at the same time, not a single player can say with confidence that he is able to “beat” the bookmaker’s line at any time. That is why not only forecasting, but also analysis of match results plays an important role.

In most cases, players initially play using , since it is easier to control the correctness of the game. Later, when you gain confidence in your abilities and the ability to accurately determine probabilities, you can switch to.

Is it possible to win more, in a bookmaker's office or casino, than to lose?

The answer to this question has always been hidden in the knowledge of the forerunners of old-time gambling, the legendary card sharpers, schemers, schemers, and real-time betters. The betting textbook contains a description of professionally invented, working and proven methods for increasing the chances of winning in poker, casinos and bookmakers on sports betting.

In the betting textbook you will find a lot of useful information about sports betting.

√ First. If you are still planning to start betting, it doesn’t matter whether it’s sports betting or casino games, in any case you will need your own mailbox, we recommend the mail services of the famous search engines Google - Gmail.com and Yandex - mail.yandex.ru

√ Next, you need to choose a bookmaker on whose website you will place bets on sports and casino games. Go through the simplest registration procedure at the bookmaker using the required passport data.

√ Then explore payment methods that allow you to replenish your game balance. Then create an account using the means of registration in the payment system itself. For convenience, you can order a plastic card to which you can withdraw your earned money; you can also use it to make various types of payments for purchases and online transfers. We recommend using the famous payment system Skrill-Moneybookers

The basic steps to start playing in an online casino or placing online sports bets have been completed.

If you decide to just show off for an adrenaline rush of emotions, or drink a beer while watching the game of your favorite team on which you want to bet, you can already start spending time gambling. And yet, if you want to get serious about betting, with the prospects of further earnings on it, study the betting textbook, in it you will find a lot of useful information that will allow you to avoid betting on the stock and increase your chances of success in a positive balance for you..

BETTING TUTORIAL 12BETS "All about sports betting"

1. For betting beginners - sports betting from scratch

2. Sports betting - betting on sports via the Internet

Sports betting

Sports betting has been around since ancient times. The kings themselves practiced this difficult art. Delivering a lot of fun and excitement. If you decide to make money through betting, you must understand that only 10 percent of all players on the planet have a hundred percent result, and only 1 percent are considered legends. Most players are losers; only you know who you are.

With the right information, a person’s capabilities grow greatly.

Our betting textbook contains a lot of useful information that will help you become a pro and make money without leaving home.

And in order to win you don’t need to have a lot of money; with an initial capital of ten dollars you can earn the required amount of money. Bookmaker bonuses will help you increase your chances, and no-losing strategies will help you put the money you win in your pocket.

To start betting on sports, you need to decide on the bookmaker in which you are going to play, register with it, make your first deposit, and receive a bonus.

Study the existing types of bets so as not to be a loser who bets real money at random, also study the types without risky strategies and they will one hundred percent insure your money against loss, having this information you will forget about losses because all the information has been tested by time and professional bettors.

Use offers, promotions and to increase your efficiency in the field of sports betting. After all, this is a freebie, and the freebie should be yours.

Value betting is a mathematical strategy for betting on undervalued events, the odds of which, in the opinion of the bettor, do not correspond to the real probability. The strategy is also called value betting or value betting.

Primitive example

Let's say a club wins every third match on its home field. The odds for this outcome are 3.3. By placing a bet of $100. for three home matches, you will earn 330 USD. (30 cu net), since two trades will lose and one will win. Naturally, only in theory, because in a primitive example only statistics are taken into account, and not other factors, such as the mood of athletes, personnel problems, xG models, the form of opponents, etc.

Expected value

The theory of probability will help you understand value betting. Most clients of bookmakers are at a loss because they bet on the quotes offered by the bookmaker, without thinking about the probability and statistics over the long term.

Let's look at an example to make it clearer. Using flat, you always bet 10 USD. at odds 1.7. The chances of the outcome according to the office are 58.8% (100/1.7). It turns out that 41.2% of bets will not go through at the distance. Previous bets turn out to be useless. And that's why.

Mathematical expectation of average income: P * (k-1) * V - (1-P) * V, where:

P – probability (from 0 to 1);
K – coefficient;
V – transaction amount.

Let's substitute the data from the example above into the formula. Result:

income = 0.588 * (1.7-1) * 100 - (1-0.588) * 100 = -0.004, rounded to 0.

Profit expectation is 0, but in reality the situation is even worse. The example does not take into account the bookmaker's margin. It turns out that the probability is higher than the actual one, and the coefficient is lower than the real value. It turns out not just a lack of earnings, but a loss.

The essence of value betting

Let's use the definition of "value bets" again to understand the solution to the problem. This is a bet on undervalued (inflated) odds in order to gain an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, you consider the chances of the outcome, which the bookmaker estimated with certain quotes, to be inadequate.

Again, we can’t do without an example. Match "Manchester United" - "Sevilla". Bookmaker 1xStavka offers odds of 1.704 (probability 58.68%) for the home team to win.

Analysis of the fight showed that the real probability is higher, say 70%, then the odds are 1.43 (100/70).

To understand whether the outcome is value-based, we use the formula k * P > 1, where:

k – bookmaker odds;
P – own probability of outcome.

Substitute the data into the formula:

1.7 * 0.7 = 1.19 > 1.

In order to find out how much you will earn from each transaction over the long term, subtract one from the resulting value - 1.19 - 1 = 0.19 = 19%.

Let us recalculate the mathematical expectation of the average income over a distance of 100 trades:

income = 100 * 0.7 * (1.7-1) * 10 c.u. – 100 (1-0.7) = 460 USD

After 100 bets at 10 USD for each event, your earnings will be 460 USD, instead of zero or loss, as in the example with regular bets.

Search for overvalued odds

Let's look at three ways to search for value bet.

Manual search– independently monitor bookmaker odds and identify errors in the line. The method is suitable for those who are able to assess probability more accurately than the analytical staff of bookmakers.

Scanners– these are special programs or online algorithms that scan quotes from different bookmakers and calculate the average value, after which the average value is calculated. Usually it is the most accurate, because all the analysts of the scanned bookmakers worked on it. A coefficient that is noticeably different from the average is a value one.

The advantages of the value bet strategy will become noticeable after many bets, at least 500. Analyze events carefully, since an erroneous assessment of the probability will lead to losses.

Remember that over a long distance, protracted positive and negative series are inevitable. Be prepared for them and set the minimum percentage from the bank to overcome the crisis.

Bookmaker 1xStavka gives 4,000 rubles for registration.

Value bets or value bets how to play correctly

The Value betting system is a strategy that offers users bets on undervalued events.

Value bets (Value bets) are bets on undervalued events offered by bookmakers. That is, where the BC coefficient is higher than the real one.

To fully understand the nature of this strategy, let’s delve a little into probability theory.

Question: Why do most players lose their money to bookmakers?
Answer: Because they place a bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and long-term probability.

Unclear? I’ll explain with an example, bookmakers won’t tell you about this: let’s say you always bet 200 rubles on odds of 1.6. This means that the bookmaker defines the probability of these events as 100/1.6 = 62.5%.

Which in turn suggests that, according to statistics, in the long term you will not notice, you will lose in 37.5% of cases. And this nullifies all the money won before.

The total mathematical expectation of your average profit over time will be:

Profit = P*(K-1)*V – (1-P)*V

P is the probability of the event (value from 0 to 1);
K - coefficient from the bookmaker's office;
V is the money you bet.

Let's calculate using real numbers from the example above

Profit = 0.625* (1.6 – 1)*200 – (1-0.625)*200 = 75 – 75 = 0

Bad news? There are even worse things. An important nuance: the bookmaker has a margin (which means the default % probability is greater than the real one, and the coefficient is less), which automatically reduces the profit to a figure less than 0. I think you understand what this means.

How to be?

Now let’s return to the definition of a bet with an advantage or value bet.

Value betting is a strategy where you bet on undervalued odds with an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, the probability set by the bookmaker, in your opinion, is not the real probability of the outcome.

Example: match between Argentina and Chile, the bookmaker puts odds of 1.6 on Argentina's victory, which means the probability of this event is 62.5%, and you think that the probability is 80%, which means the real odds should be 100/80 = 1.25

How do you know if this is a value bet? The condition must be met (value betting formula):

K is the bookmaker's odds
P is your probability of a positive outcome.

Let's do the calculation and substitute the data from the example:

1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28 > 1

1.28 - 1 = 0.28. This means that if you bet on such events, in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 28% of each bet.

(Below you can find a calculator so you don’t have to do all this manually)

Let's substitute the data into the formula reflecting the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player will make 100 bets

Profit = 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rub – 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rub = 9600 – 4000 = 5600 rubles

Q.E.D

How much to bet

To choose the optimal bet amount depending on the risk and underestimation of the outcome, the strategy is often used. It allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank you can bet on the current bet.

How to find value bets

All this is great, but how to find value bets on football, hockey and other sports where the value of the bet is determined by inflated odds.

Here are 3 possible ways

Find overvalued betting odds in the line yourself

If you are very well versed in a particular sport and consider yourself a true expert, capable of assessing all the factors influencing the outcome of an event, then the flag is in your hands. But I wildly doubt that your expert knowledge will be stronger than that of a team of experts from the bookmaker who deal with this professionally.

Using the value betting scanner, also known as the value betting service

The principle of their operation is that they scan the odds for a specific event from a large number of bookmakers and calculate the arithmetic average. Then they compare it with each coefficient separately, which is issued by the offices.

According to the assumption, the average value is the most accurate value, because in fact all the experts from all the bookmakers scanned worked on it.

We conclude that the value that differs more from the average is an underestimated event.

Where can I find edge betting scanner sites? Many of the fork services provide this opportunity, for example Surebet.

Search for value bets among arbs.

The fork is the source. The very existence of a fork means that one of the events is underestimated. A fork is essentially an initiator of a value bet. Read more, you may learn a lot of new things for yourself.

If the service also provides live sure bets, then here are the value bets in live. Their main disadvantage is the lack of time for thorough analysis.

Let's go back... after analyzing the odds of other companies, you can easily guess which event is more underestimated.

Let's try to do all this in the field using real odds.

Value betting in practice. 2 Cases

Case 1. Search for surebets using a scanner

Let's take a real bet in the USA-Canada hockey match

1/1,5+1/3,32 = 0,9678 < 1, значит вилка есть

Now let’s try to determine which odds are overrated by analyzing other bookmakers

Let's calculate the average here and there:

(1,47+1,4+1,43+1,4+1,46+1,42+1,42+1,45) / 8 = 1,43

(2,82+3,0+2,9+2,85+2,94+2,85+2,85+2,78) / 8 = 2,87

Live broadcast, anything is possible, so we get both outcomes underestimated

1,43 < 1,5 на 1,5-1,43 = 0,07 это 3,27%
2,87 < 3,32 на 3,32-2,87 = 0,45 это 4,72%

and you can bet on any, but the outcome Under(4,5) aka TM(4.5) is more undervalued, so we bet on it.

Case 2. Manual search

Case study of how you can manually try to determine the value bet

As an example, let's take the English Premier League match between Newcastle and Tottenham. Let's assume that even before the start of the match, you conducted a deep analysis and realized that the bookmaker had set the odds with a bias. Now you need to check if you are right.

To do this, you need to use the formula that was given earlier:

The odds for the home team to win are 4.6. If you believe the statistics of past matches, Newcastle usually wins 1 match out of 4. This means that, based on probability theory, the home team wins 25% of matches.

If we substitute our data into the formula, we get: 4.6 * 0.25 = 1.15. If the result is greater than one, then this bet will be profitable.

As you can see from the example above, our bet worked. However, our system itself is quite dubious. The Value bet strategy is good over the long haul. You can also use it in symbiosis with the “” strategy. The main thing is that the final result of the calculation according to the formula must be greater than one.

Value bet calculator

For convenience, below is a Value betting online service calculator - a program where you can calculate the profitability of a bet.

field - enter the odds that the bookmaker gives for the event
field - enter your personal probability estimate as a percentage

Conclusions. Is it beneficial to use valueng? Review.

According to probability theory YES, but:

You need a really large number of bets for the statistics to do their job (not 10, not 20, or even 100, but more). Are you ready for this?
Are you sure that the bets you will use will really be value ones?

But arguments can also be made in defense:

Compared to forks, you don't have to take risks and place a bunch of bets on all the shoulders at the same time.
Your account will not be blocked, since your behavior will be as similar as possible to the behavior of an ordinary player.
The profit is greater than in sure bets.