Fed meeting: No change this time, June is in question. Fed meeting
The US Federal Reserve will again buy assets ... October Fed USA will buy new securities for $60 billion every month. The regulator has not bought assets since 2014. The Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA again... in Fed accepted after the volatility in the short-term securities market. Fed promised to introduce funds to the overnight repo market until January. Central Bank USA announced a return to asset purchases Fed to start buying assets again the head of the regulator... US central bank announces return to asset purchases ... , announced the head Fed. This is not a new round of quantitative easing (QE), he stressed, but the market is in disarray. The Federal Reserve ( Fed) USA will resume building up ... immediately indicated that Fed monitors "geopolitical risks", trade tensions and Brexit in the UK. IN USA meanwhile, there are signs of the future... Rebuild bank reserves Unlike QE, when Fed bought long-term government bonds USA in the secondary market, this time the US Central Bank intends to...Economy, 11 Sep, 16:02
Trump proposes to the Fed to cut the base rate to zero or lower ... Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump proposed to the Federal Reserve ( Fed) performing in USA functions of the central bank, reduce the base interest rate to zero or ... increased. Trump also noted that only naivete Fed and its head Jerome Powell does not allow USA"do what others are already doing... because of the idiots," the president concluded. In early September, the former head Fed USA Alan Greenspan, in an interview with CNBC, said that base interest rates will soon ... Trump frustrated with Fed chief after first rate cut since 2008 The president USA Donald Trump after the decision of the Federal Reserve ( Fed) to cut the rate by 25 basis points, said on Twitter that ... assistance from the Federal Reserve," the president added. Wednesday, July 31st Fed USA for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008 reduced the base ... -2.25%. ex-chairman Fed Janet Yellen has previously said she supports a 25bp rate cut. USA- part of the global economy, stressed ... The US Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time since 2008 Fed USA for the first time in a decade, it lowered the rate, fully meeting the expectations of analysts and ... from other central banks, including the Russian one. Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA, acting as the country's central bank, for the first time since the global financial ... USA, and a “monetary shock” would be needed to continue growth, Pokatovich reasoned. After Fed hinted in June at a rate cut, USA ... Interest-bearing stock: why the Fed should not succumb to Trump's pressure ... of the Open Market Committee Fed USA players are actively discussing the possibility of the first rate cut in ten years by the world's leading regulator. Fed found itself in a difficult... sensitive to economic growth, especially shortly before the election. presidents USA who were going to a second term in a period of clear economic growth ... which could have been used much more rationally. current rate Fed roughly corresponds to inflation, which is typical for a neutral monetary policy... In 2019, Russia doubled its plan for foreign currency loans. Sanctions and geopolitical risks cannot bring down interest in Russian securities ... from Fed The Ministry of Finance chose the moment for placement extremely well, the analysts interviewed by RBC are in solidarity. It is close to ideal, given the outcome of the meeting Fed USA on Wednesday (the US regulator sees more and more arguments in favor of policy easing) and a sharp decline in Treasury securities yields USA... there will be positive news about trade relations USA and China. Optimism in global markets after the meeting Fed USA guaranteed a high demand for Eurobonds, no... Russia to place Eurobonds after easing Fed rhetoric ... Timing for placement is close to ideal given yesterday's meeting Fed USA(the regulator sees more and more arguments in favor of easing the policy) and ... the reaction of the global debt market, a sharp decline in the yields of Treasury securities USA and emerging markets, enumerates the chief economist of the Russian Direct Investment Fund ... capital” Alexander Losev. Optimism in global markets after yesterday's meeting Fed USA guarantees a high demand for Eurobonds, and no sanctions and geopolitical... Bloomberg learned about Trump's confidence in the authority to fire the head of the US Federal Reserve ... USA Donald Trump believes that he has all the necessary powers to remove the head of the Federal Reserve from office ( Fed... criticized the chapter as well Fed Jerome Powell, whom he himself nominated for this post. Later economic adviser to the President USA Kevin Hassett said there are no risks of the resignation of the head Fed. “Yes, of course, 100%,” Hassett replied ... The US Federal Reserve left the key rate unchanged Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA kept the key rate at the level of 2.25–2.5% per annum. This is stated in the publication Fed. The ministry noted that since the last meeting of the financial regulator on May 1, the labor market in USA remains strong... do not change the key rate. At a meeting in early May, the chairman Fed Jerome Powell noted that there were no compelling reasons to change the key rate... The US Federal Reserve refused to raise the key rate ... Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA, which performs the functions of the Central Bank of the country, has kept the key rate in the range ... follows from the materials published following the meeting of the heads of the department. Chairman Fed Jerome Powell stated that there is no good reason for the increase or ... will be maintained for a long time. March of this year Fed also did not raise the base interest rate. Then there...Economics, 20 Mar, 21:36
The ruble strengthened to a maximum since August 2018 against the backdrop of the decision of the US Federal Reserve ... (Fed) USA announced its decision to keep the base interest rate at 2.25-2.5%. In addition, the forecast for GDP growth has been lowered. USA in... and from 2.1 to 2% in 2020. Also Fed declined to raise rates further. The price of WTI crude oil ... . Ryabkov considered the refusal of the dollar to protect the economies of countries from actions USA“Oil prices are consolidating at relatively high levels, the current account...Economy, 20 Mar, 21:31
The US Federal Reserve refused to raise rates this year ... to the current range of 2.25–2.5% Fed ( Fed) USA, which performs the functions of the country's central bank, has retained the base interest rate on ... the department's materials published following the meeting of its leaders. Earlier rate Fed was set in the range of 2.25-2.5%, the median value ... there will be two increases, in 2020 - one. Also Fed lowered the GDP growth forecast USA in 2019 and 2020: from 2.3 ... Trump adviser said there are no risks of the resignation of the head of the Fed ... ". He also stated that Fed is the only economic problem USA. Bloomberg learned about Trump's discussion of the dismissal of the head Fed Subsequently, Bloomberg learned that Trump had repeatedly discussed the dismissal of the head with his entourage. Fed ... Bloomberg learned about the possible dismissal of the head of the US Treasury ... Mnuchin's tenure depends on stock market performance President USA Donald Trump is considering firing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. About... Citigroup. “We continue to see strong economic growth in the economy USA with sustained consumer and business activity,” a spokesman for Mnuchin said. However ... the reason for Trump's thoughts on Mnuchin was his dissatisfaction with the work of the head Fed Jerome Powell. According to the agency's sources, the head of state was interested in whether... Trump called the only problem of the American economy ... The president USA stated that the main problem of the American economy is the existence of the Federal Reserve System ( Fed). In his opinion, the regulator does not understand what is happening in the country. “The only problem of our economy is Fed" Donald Trump tweeted. “They don’t feel the market... how the president on his Twitter talks about the successes of his administration, Fed predicts a slowdown in the US economy. As a result, last... Fed raises key rate despite Trump's demands ... -release Fed USA It is noted that the American economy shows steady growth rates, and the situation in the labor market continues to improve. Economic risks USA"roughly balanced," states the regulator. At the same time, as experts expected, the American regulator corrected the "dot chart": now Fed USA waiting... Trump criticized the work of the head of the US Federal Reserve ... The president USA Donald Trump blamed the leadership of the Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA in the decline in the stock markets, and also spoke about dissatisfaction with the work of the chairman Fed... not blaming anyone, but just telling you what I think that Fed in his work is far from reality, ”Trump said, adding that ... Chris Koons - sent a letter to Trump asking him to stop criticizing Fed. According to senators, the American leader cannot fire Powell without... Trump named the biggest threat to himself ... the independent Federal Reserve ( Fed), at the end of September for the third time in a year increased the key rate President USA said that the main threat... -2.25%. Its decision in the Federal Committee on the open market Fed USA motivated by the fact that the country maintains a low level of unemployment, growing ... . Trump is unhappy: what does the increase in the main rate mean Fed USA At the same time, the President USA He has repeatedly criticized the rate increase, pointing out that ... Trump called the Fed's actions a mistake amid falling stock indices ... service USA (Fed) is making a mistake, US President Donald Trump said amid a sharp decline in major stock indices, CNN reports. "I think Fed commits... Fed gone crazy,” Trump told reporters. He stressed that the fall in stock indices is a correction that has long been expected. Stock indices in USA... dissatisfied: what does the increase in the main rate mean Fed USA After the latest raise, Trump said he was unhappy with this decision Fed because it will increase...Finance, 27 Sep 2018, 17:15
Trump is unhappy: what does the increase in the main rate of the US Federal Reserve mean ...and maintaining the inflation target of 2%. Forecasts Fed favorable: GDP growth USA at the end of the year will be 3.1 instead of 2.8 ... participants in the committee meetings, Klyushnev suggests. How did you react to the decision? Fed Trump? The president USA Donald Trump, when it became known about the next rate hike... . For a long time, the factor of multidirectional policies of regulators in Russia and USA(rate hike Fed and reduction by the Central Bank) put pressure on the ruble. For investors...Finance, 27 Sep 2018, 05:38
Trump said about the negative consequences of raising the key rate of the US Federal Reserve ... US President Donald Trump criticized the leadership of the Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA for another increase in the key rate. The Washington writes about it ... the fact that they seem to like rising interest rates, ”Trump said. Fed USA raised the key rate for the third time in a year. According to him ... noted that Fed should now take other actions. September 26 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Fed USA decided to increase...Finance, 26 Sep 2018, 21:01
The US Federal Reserve raised the key rate for the third time in a year ... Fed USA raises the key rate for the third time in 2018 - ... On Wednesday, September 26, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Fed USA decided to raise the key rate by 0.25 pp... the year will be raised four times. Line Fed to raise the rate has already attracted criticism from the president several times USA. In July, Donald Trump said... Reuters reported on Butina's meetings with the deputy heads of the Fed and the US Treasury ... Arrested in USA Russian woman Maria Butina participated in meetings with officials of the Ministry of Finance and Fed USA in 2015. This may indicate that Butina has "wider" contacts in USA than was thought... Stanley Fischer, who at the time served as vice Fed USA, and a meeting with Nathan Sheets, who on that... Deutsche Bank fails US stress test ... » bank in USA was the only one of 35 organizations that did not pass the crisis resilience test. According to the results of the stress test Fed also demanded... a second round of the Federal Reserve's annual testing USA writes The Wall Street Journal. IN Fed said the bank had "critical shortcomings... Morgan Stanley" financial authorities USA ordered to freeze the size of dividends, writes the Financial Times. In the case of other large banks Fed acknowledged that they... Outside the "vulnerable five": how the growth of rates in the US affects the ruble ... Following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Fed USA On June 13, it decided to raise the key rate by 0.25 ... at a price of 63.23 rubles. per dollar. Key rate hike Fed USA, of course, makes dollar-denominated instruments more attractive, which hits... emerging markets, the analyst points out. Greatest sensitivity to monetary tightening Fed USA show the currencies of those countries that were previously allocated to the so-called ... The US Federal Reserve kept the key rate ... USA decided to keep the discount rate at the level of 1.5-1.75% per annum. The decision became expected for the market Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA... grow at a moderate pace and labor market conditions remain strong. Fed raised the key rate for the first time in a year "Taking into account... a steady return to 2% inflation," it was reported. Solution Fed leaving the key rate unchanged was unanimous. The solution matched... Türkiye removed its gold reserves from the US ... Turkey's bank moved the country's gold reserves out of the Federal Reserve USA (Fed), follows from the annual report published on the bank's website. It notes... Fed 28,689 tons of Turkish gold were stored. In a similar column for 2017 there is a dash. Relations between Turkey and USA aggravated ... by the Kurds The arrest in USA Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla. U.S. Attorney's Office wants to sentence him...Finance, 21 Mar 2018, 21:01
The Fed raised the key rate for the first time in a year ... embedded in financial asset quotes, analysts say the Federal Reserve System ( Fed) USA raised the key rate by 0.25 percentage points - now it is ... long-term,” the FOMC said in a statement. Median Forecast Fed in terms of GDP growth USA improved to 2.7% in 2018 (after... on the outlook for the economy USA improved since December. This statement was regarded by the market and analysts as a signal that the new head Fed will host more...Money, 05 Mar 2018, 19:14
Following oil: what will be the dollar and euro in March ... on the oil market and news from the US Federal Reserve ( Fed). The decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate and the inflow of speculative capital ... decisions Fed USA and the Bank of Russia on rates. Meeting Fed March 21 will be chaired for the first time by new leader Jerome Powell. The market expects Fed... of the money market IC Veles Capital Yuriy Kravchenko. If the decision Fed will coincide with market expectations, the markets will not show significant dynamics, adds...Money, 08 Feb 2018, 07:32
Calm in the absence of sanctions: what will determine the ruble exchange rate in February ... relative stability. “There are no grounds for further growth in oil prices yet, USA are actively increasing production. At the same time, there are reasons for a significant drawdown in oil... will closely monitor the rhetoric Fed USA. Recently, the likelihood of rapid tightening of monetary policy has increased in USA which can help strengthen... ... Open Market Committee Fed USA raised the key interest rate by 0.25 p.p. - up to ... was expected, experts say Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Fed USA following a two-day meeting, he raised the key interest rate (federal funds ... , GDP growth forecast USA for 2018 was increased from 2.1% to 2.5%. No Surprises Solution Fed met expectations... Between oil and sanctions: what will determine the ruble exchange rate in December ... including depend on decisions Fed USA and the Bank of Russia at interest rates in mid-December ( Fed will announce its decision on December 13 ... . In this regard, the rhetoric of the leadership of the Bank of Russia and Fed USA, which will give the market a signal what will happen to the yields in the market ... depend on the decision and rhetoric Fed, prospects for US tax reform, ECB rhetoric and macroeconomic statistics from USA and the eurozone. Analysts believe... Oil on the rise: what factors will determine the ruble exchange rate in November ... demand for ruble assets from investors, intentions and actions Fed USA, as well as the development of the situation around anti-Russian sanctions. It is these factors... IC "Freedom Finance" Georgy Vashchenko draws attention to the fact that Fed USA may raise the key rate in December of this year, and the reduction ... the market will also have an effect Fed USA. President last week USA Donald Trump names new leader Fed- at the end of Janet Yellen's term... Oreshkin appreciated the working conditions of the new head of the US Federal Reserve ... economic development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin told reporters that the new head Fed USA you will have to work in difficult conditions, an RBC correspondent reports. According to him ... the so-called Minsky moment,” the minister said. “In order to prevent the acceleration of inflation, Fed USA may be forced to tighten policy more seriously than participants now expect ... and maximum employment. In 2017, the Open Market Committee Fed USA twice decided to increase the base interest rate (federal funds ... Donald Trump officially announces the name of the new head of the Fed ... . Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump noted that the economy USA has made "incredible progress" lately. “He has proven he can… the house has already notified Powell of the upcoming appointment. Powers of the current head Fed Janet Yellen, appointed by Barack Obama in 2012, is expiring in ... the administration of the head Fed during the first term of the presidency will be the first case in the last 40 years. The last time the newly elected president USA So... Money, 02 Oct 2017, 18:23 Direction of the ruble: how the dollar and euro will change in October ... rates (currently 8.5% per annum), while Fed USA already this year may increase its base rate (now... surprises from Fed, they emphasize that one must nevertheless monitor the rhetoric of the US Central Bank and the reaction to it. "Statements Fed USA on... Dmitry Postolenko. In the meantime, the announcement of plans for tax reform in USA provides exclusively psychological support to the American currency, since in order to implement ...On June 14, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) decided to raise the base interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. - up to 1-1.25%. Experts note that this decision may moderately reduce investors' appetite for ruble-denominated assets.
As a result of a two-day meeting on June 13-14, the leadership of the US Federal Reserve decided to raise the base interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. up to 1-1.25%, according to the website of the regulator. This decision coincided with the expectations of most economists and market participants.
The statement notes moderate growth of the US economy, the inflation estimate (PCE index) for 2017 has been reduced - from 1.9% to 1.6%.
The Fed is still looking forward to another, third rate hike in 2017, the report said. In determining the rate of adjustment of the base rate range in the future, the Fed will focus on labor market indicators, inflationary pressure and inflation expectations, as well as take into account international events, the statement emphasizes.
The communiqué also said that the Fed plans to begin reducing assets on the balance sheet, which reached $4.5 trillion after stimulus programs. The Fed will reduce reinvestment in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed federal agencies. The reduction in Treasury cuts will amount to $6 billion per month and will increase by that amount every quarter until it reaches $30 billion per month. For mortgage-backed securities of federal agencies, the reduction in reinvestment will be $4 billion per month and will increase by the same step every quarter until it reaches $20 billion per month.
Expected rate hike
According to the Bloomberg consensus forecast, out of 100 economists surveyed, 95 expected a key rate increase of 0.25 percentage points. According to futures data on the CME Group (a group of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), on the day before the meeting, the probability of a rate increase of 0.25 percentage points. at the June meeting was 93.5%.
“Most investors have long been confident in the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting, which means they took this factor into account when making changes to their portfolios,” said Bogdan Zvarich, an analyst at Finam Group.
Significant decision
“When making a decision, the Fed was guided by the achievement of the so-called full employment in the labor market,” says Ivan Kopeikin, an expert at the FG BCS.
Based on the results of the last meeting (May 2-3), experts pointed to the fact that significant decisions are made at extended meetings with a press conference. And so it happened - at extended meetings in March and June, it was decided to raise the rate. In 2017, two more extended meetings will be held on September 19-20 and December 12-13.
The US Federal Reserve began a policy of raising the rate on December 14, 2015, raising the rate by 0.25 percentage points. A year later, in December 2015, the Fed again raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points. The next increase by 0.25 p.p. was in March 2017.
The impact of the Fed on the ruble exchange rate
Igor Dmitriev, head of the Central Bank's monetary policy department, said in an interview with Reuters on June 8 that the Fed's June rate hike has already been taken into account in the Central Bank's monetary policy. According to him, it is necessary to pay attention to the accompanying comments. The Fed's focus on inflation or the labor market will make it clear what the Fed plans to do to raise rates, he said.
Experts interviewed by RBC also advise paying attention to the Fed's comments. According to Zvarych, with the increase in the rate, funding in dollars becomes more expensive. As a result, the spread between the cost of funding and the yield of Russian assets is getting smaller. Hence the decrease in interest in Russian instruments, the expert explains.
“Increasing the base rate is likely to reduce appetite and, accordingly, have a negative impact on Russian assets and the ruble, but the effect will be insignificant, since the decision is already priced in,” said Ivan Kopeikin, an expert at BCS FG.
Changes in the Fed's rhetoric and market expectations regarding the trajectory of the rate increase may affect the further steps of the Central Bank, says Yakov Yakovlev, senior analyst at ATON Investment Company for macroeconomics and debt markets. According to Zvarych, if the Fed takes a break in the rate hike cycle until December 2017, the Central Bank will be able to further reduce the rate at the next meetings.
"Naturally, the Fed's rate increase will lead to some pressure on the Russian ruble (which, however, is moderately favorable for exporters and the federal budget)," Sergei Khestanov, macroeconomic adviser to the CEO of Otkritie Broker, points out.
Market reaction
US indices reacted to the Fed's decision with a moderate decline. By 21:45 Moscow time, in relation to the opening level of today, the S & P 500 index fell by 0.25%, to 2434.1 points, NASDAQ - by 0.53%, to 6188.2 points, the Dow Jones industrial index - by 0, 06%, up to 21314.9 points. The DXY index (which shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of six major currencies - key US trading partners) fell by 0.07% to 96.9 points.
The decision had a moderately negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. On the MICEX, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by 0.78% to 57.42, against the euro by 0.98% to 64.51.
Meetings of the Central Banks of the world during the year for any trader is an important event that helps not only to earn, but also to assess the economic situation in a particular country. The Central Bank is the main regulator, which is a barometer of the health of the economy. Meetings that take place at different periods annually and the minutes, which are later published, give analysts, investors and just traders guidance in the future value of the national currency, as well as prospects for managing the economy in the current year.
This review provides a calendar of meetings of the Central Banks of the world for the current 2017, indicating the exact dates of these events.
US Federal Reserve Fed (FOMC) meeting for 2017
The US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve System) holds a two-day meeting, the result of which is a decision on the interest rate. It is important to note that an active reaction is observed not only when the meeting of the Central Bank is completed and the decision is published. But even after three weeks, when the minutes of the meeting are published, the so-called "minutes" or Minutes of the meeting. The interest rate decision has the greatest influence on the dynamics of world stock exchanges, and the time of holding
Schedule of the meeting of the monetary policy committee of the US Federal Reserve,
(Federal Reserve Fed)
| Decision on the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, further monetary policy, speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Minutes of meetings) |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision January 31-February 1, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on February 22, 2017 |
| March 14-15, 2017 | April 5, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision May 2-3, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve May 24, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision June 13-14, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve July 5, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision July 25-26, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve August 15, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision September 19-20, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve October 11, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision October 31-November 1, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve November 22, 2017 |
| US Federal Reserve Rate Decision December 12-13, 2017 | Publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve January 3, 2018 |
Bank of England (BoE) meeting for 2017
The Bank of England meets monthly for two days and decides on the interest rate and monetary policy. The official protocol is published two weeks after the Central Bank announced its decision. The publication of minutes has the same strong influence on the financial markets as the meeting itself. A special feature is that the publication of the minutes of the last meeting is published on the same day as the current meeting. Thus, the protocol data reflects the previous decision taken by the Central Bank.
Bank of England meeting schedule
(Bank of England,BoE)
|
Interest rate decision further monetary policy |
|
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision February 2, 2017 |
Publication of the minutes of the Bank of England meeting on February 2, 2017 |
| March 16, 2017 |
March 16 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision May 11, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England May 11 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision June 15, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England June 15 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision August 3, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England August 3rd 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision September 14, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England September 14 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision November 2, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England November 2 2017 |
| Bank of England Interest Rate Decision December 14, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England December 14 2017 |
Meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) for 2017
The decisions of this regulator, which are made at the meeting, have a strong impact on all European currencies, as well as stock indices in the region. The meeting is held by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, and it also makes important decisions on monetary policy.
Schedule of meetings of the European Central Bank,
(European Central Bank,ECB)
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision January 19, 2017 |
| March 9, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision April 27, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision June 8, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision July 20, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision September 7, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision October 26, 2017 |
| European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision December 14, 2017 |
Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting for 2017
The Bank of Japan is an independent structure from the Ministry of Finance and implements monetary policy in the country by changing the refinancing interest rate. At this rate, in the future, commercial banks can attract and place funds. During the year, the Central Bank holds meetings at which decisions on monetary policy are made. It is noteworthy that earlier the bank's governing board held 14 meetings during the year, but in 2016 their number was reduced to eight.
Bank of Japan meeting schedule
(European Central Bank,ECB)
|
Interest rate decision, further monetary policy |
Publication of Minutes of Meetings |
Publication of monthly reports of the Bank of Japan |
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision January 30-31, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on February 3 |
January 31 |
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision March 15-16, 2017 |
March 22 |
|
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision April 26-27, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan May 2 |
April 27 |
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision June 15-16, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan 21st of June |
|
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision July 19-20, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan July 25 |
July 20 |
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision September 20-21, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan September 26 |
|
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision October 30-31, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan November 6 |
October 31 |
| Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision December 20-21, 2017 |
Publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan December 26 |
Meetings of the National Bank of Switzerland (Swiss National Bank, SNB) for 2017
The Swiss National Bank holds meetings quarterly, followed by a press conference of representatives of the regulator, where the decision on monetary policy is announced.
Schedule of meetings of the National Bank of Switzerland,
(Swiss National Bank, SNB)
| Bank of Switzerland interest rate decision March 16, 2017 |
| June 15, 2017 |
| Bank of Switzerland Interest Rate Decision September 14, 2017 |
| Bank of Switzerland Interest Rate Decision December 14, 2017 |
Bank of Canada (BOC) meetings for 2017
Bank of Canada (BOC) meetings are held by a board of directors, consisting of a governor and five deputies, whose purpose is to make decisions on monetary policy.
Bank of Canada meeting schedule,
(Bank of Canada, B.O.C.)
| Decision on the interest rate and further monetary policy |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision January 18, 2017 |
| March 1, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision April 12, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision May 24, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision July 12, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision September 6, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision October 25, 2017 |
| Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision December 6, 2017 |
Reserve Bank Board (RBB) meetings for 2017
The Reserve Bank Board of Australia decides on the interest rate and regulation of the country's monetary policy. Council meetings are held 11 times a year, every first Tuesday of the month except January. As a rule, one of the meetings is held in Melbourne, the other 10 in the Australian capital Canberra. The minutes of the meetings are published two weeks after each meeting of the Council of the Bank.
Schedule of meetings of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia,
(Reserve Bank Board)
| Decision on the interest rate and further monetary policy |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision February 7, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia interest rate decision March 7, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision April 4, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia interest rate decision May 2, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia interest rate decision June 6, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia interest rate decision July 4, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision August 1, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision September 5, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision October 3, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision November 7, 2017 |
| Bank of Australia Interest Rate DecisionDecember 5, 2017 |
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meetings in 2016
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets eight times a year to decide on interest rates and future monetary policy. The meeting is held one day, and the results are known by the evening at 20:00 GMT.
Schedule of meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand,
(Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ)
| Decision on the interest rate and further monetary policy |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision February 9, 2017 |
| March 23, 2017 |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision May 11, 2017 |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision June 22, 2017 |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision August 10, 2017 |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision September 28, 2017 |
| Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision November 9, 2017 |
The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but the meeting, which will be held in June, is attracting more and more attention of observers.
Almost no one expects the Fed to raise short-term interest rates following a two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday. According to CME data, investors are considering a 95% chance that the central bank will keep the key rate in the range of 0.75%-1% this time.
However, the central bank will report its latest economic outlook and may signal what the interest rate outlook is for the coming months. The Fed's statement will be released on Wednesday at 1800 GMT. There will be no new forecasts, nor will there be a press conference from Chairman Yellen. But here's what to look out for:
PREPARATION FOR JUNE
The statement may contain hints at the possibility of raising the key rate at the next meeting, which will be held on June 13-14. Fed officials expect two more rate hikes this year, and investors estimate a 71% chance of a June hike. However, the authorities are unlikely to bind themselves with any specific promises.
They'll want to look at two more monthly US employment reports ahead of the June meeting, as well as a host of other economic data. Most likely, they will stick to the tactics used earlier this year. In their February 1 statement, central bank officials did not hint that they are considering raising the key rate in March. However, as the March meeting approached, high-ranking Fed officials increasingly signaled that they were ready to act, and on March 15, the authorities announced that they were raising the rate.
INSTABILITY OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION
Close attention will be attracted by the Fed's assessment of economic data, which has recently deteriorated. In the 1st quarter, GDP grew by only 0.7% year on year as consumers decided to tighten their belts.
Inflation also eased in March, which could alarm the central bank, which is assessing the economy's ability to withstand rising borrowing costs. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which is the Fed's key inflation indicator, was down 0.2% from the previous month.
However, the economy continues to create jobs and consumers remain positive. Fed officials could signal whether they see the recent data weakness as temporary or as a worrying slowdown in economic growth.
FED BALANCE
Many market participants will be looking for hints as to when the Fed will cut its huge portfolio of bonds and other assets, which now stands at about $4.5 trillion. At their March meeting, central bankers concluded that they are likely to start reducing their balance sheet later this year.
There is likely to be some discussion at the central bank this week as well, but economists are divided over whether the Fed will change the balance sheet part of its announcement. Goldman Sachs, in a recent note to clients, said the announcement is likely to be in line with the minutes of the Fed's March meeting, which said balance sheet cuts should be gradual and predictable.
However, the Fed may choose to disclose details of its discussions only in the minutes of the May meeting, which will be released with the usual three-week delay on May 24th.
WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH
Despite signs of strengthening economies outside the US, central banks in Europe and Japan appear to be in no hurry to scale back monetary support given weak inflation. Moreover, elections will be held between the May and June Fed meetings in France and the UK. Their results, especially if the populists win in France, could change the political and economic landscape of Europe and plunge the region into an abyss of uncertainty.
In early 2016, Fed officials clearly signaled that global problems could threaten the US economy and promised to monitor external risks.
This is not surprising, because the future prospects for monetary policy in the US are now especially important.
The event will contain a number of points that investors should pay attention to. At 21:00 Moscow time, the regulator's statement will be published and updated forecasts of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be presented. Jerome Powell's press conference will take place at 21:30 Moscow time. Now, speeches by the head of the Fed are held after each meeting, and not four times a year, which is aimed at improving communication between the Fed and market participants.
Main settings
This time it is assumed that the key rate will be left unchanged, at the level of 2.25-2.5%. A look into the future is important - an assessment of the prospects for monetary policy in the United States. With a high degree of probability, market participants are planning to reduce the key rate this year.
In addition, in May, the “QE in reverse” program began to be phased out, which was a way to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, and therefore a measure of monetary tightening. The program should be completed at the end of September. From October, part of the funds received from expired mortgage securities will be directed to the purchase of US government bonds, which will play in favor of lowering market interest rates.
In detail
. General state of the economy— at the beginning of May, the FRS estimated it as a “solid” growth after an earlier characteristic of a slowdown. In Q1, US GDP added 3.1% (q/q). However, in the future, a more consistent slowdown is possible due to increased protectionism and problems in the global economy. According to the forecast of the Atlanta Fed, known for the most recent estimates as part of the GDPNow service, a 2.1% increase in GDP is expected for the second quarter.
The US economy is in the late stage of the economic cycle. noticeably inverted (inverted) in the middle segment. In the period up to 10 years, we are talking about an inversion of more than 80%. This may be a signal foreshadowing a US recession with a 1-2 year time lag.
. Labor market- perhaps one of the main factors that the Fed focuses on. The key report on the US labor market for May played in favor of strengthening expectations for the Fed's rate cut. The number of people employed outside of agriculture. sector (non-farm payrolls) increased by only 75 thousand. At the same time, +200 thousand is considered normal for a strong labor market. These are data for the month, but the beginning of negative trends is possible.
. Inflation. In a statement issued following the previous meeting, the regulator said that inflation is likely to remain around the 2% target. However, the reality may be different. In April, the regulator's favorite indicator - the consumer spending price index (PCE Price Index) - showed an increase of 1.5% per annum, and the basic version of the index (cleared from food and energy) increased by 1.6%. More recent data - in May, consumer inflation (CPI) was 1.8% per annum compared to 2% in April, producer inflation also slowed down.
Earlier, the Fed pointed to stability in long-term inflation expectations, despite the growing national debt, which exceeded the mark of $22 trillion. According to the inflation-protected bond segment (TIPS), inflation expectations in the United States for the next 5 years are 1.85% per annum. Back in September, 2.3% were observed. However, then inflation expectations sank along with oil prices, and also because of general economic risks.
. The impact of the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) has been consolidating in recent months. The dollar bounced off multi-year lows last year, and many US corporations pointed to unfavorable changes in exchange rates for financial results. I would like to note the high spreads between the yields of US and German government bonds. The eurozone economy is unbalanced, and the yields of short and medium issues of many government bonds in the region are negative, which plays in favor of the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Also, the growth of the American can be facilitated by the exit from risks in case of increased turbulence on financial markets. So the Fed is better off trying to keep the US stock market from collapsing.
Dollar index chart from 2016, weekly timeframe
. Risk assessment. At the beginning of the year, the Fed removed the wording about the balance of risks for the prospects for the development of the American economy. The regulator notes the global economic and financial situation. First of all, we are talking about the slowdown in the global economy, which is clearly visible on the charts of the industrial business activity indices of the eurozone and China. The deterioration in the terms of foreign trade hit many countries, Germany in particular. In the second quarter, the Bundesbank predicts a slight decline in the German economy. The Fed will evaluate current and forecast economic conditions in the US, focusing on employment and inflation targets, data from financial markets and "from abroad".
Monetary Policy Forecast
Attention is on the Fed statement, FOMC digital forecasts and the subsequent speech by Jerome Powell. Earlier, the head of the regulator promised to stimulate the US economy if necessary.
According to the March forecast, for 2019 the FOMC planned to keep the key rate unchanged, at the level of 2.25-2.5%. According to the derivatives segment (CME FedWatch service), with a high probability, market participants expect three stages of rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points before the end of the year, the nearest one may take place as early as July. We are waiting for a new forecast of the regulator following the results of this meeting.
More than 50% of US citizens invest in stocks, including pension savings, so a strong drawdown in the US market could have an adverse economic effect. This forces the Fed to keep an eye on financial conditions. In previous years, the Fed informally supported the US stock market during crashes, softening the rhetoric and thus completing the correction. Something like this happened this time as well. One of the factors behind the rally since the beginning of the year is the decline in expectations for monetary tightening of global central banks.
This time, the risks have increased and more aggressive measures may be needed. Apparently, this year the rate will indeed be reduced. In my opinion, this time the FOMC median forecast will assume one stage of decline before the end of the year. The Fed may prefer to wait for the release of fresh macro information and developments in the trade confrontation between the US and China. If necessary, the FOMC will adjust the forecast in September.
Volatility is possible on Wednesday evening. If the regulator disappoints investors with a more restrained forecast than the market is laying down, then US stocks may resume correction. There will also be a factor in favor of the dollar strengthening. Obviously, the Fed's rhetoric will be flexible, and there will be room for maneuver. In the longer term, this may become a powerful factor supporting the US stock market.
